Starting in February 2009, ABI Research (http://www.abiresearch.com) forecast that approximately 35 million netbooks would ship into world markets in the course of the year.
That estimate was viewed in some quarters as unrealistically high. However the final 2009 shipment numbers — 36.3 million netbooks shipped — have confirmed that the forecast was perhaps a little conservative, according to the research group.
In 2010, netbook shipments are expected to reach 58 million while a new element has been added to the mobile consumer electronics market equation: the media tablet, initially personified by Apple’s iPad. How will mobile CE markets react to a “new kid on the block” so soon after the start of the netbook craze?
“We expect the netbook market to fragment according to different regional value propositions,” says principal analyst Jeff Orr. “Functionality will be added to mainstream netbook products while at the same time an entry-level netbook solution will grow, with the aim of targeting some large emerging markets (including China and India) where PC penetration is still quite low.”
At the same time, ABI Research sees the pace of netbook market growth slowing to a CAGR [compound annual growth rate] of 23 percent, as media tablets start to steal some netbook thunder. The firm’s new “Netbooks, MIDs, Media Tablets, and Mobile CE Market Data” conservatively forecasts media tablet sales of about eight million in 2010.
“Apple’s claimed shipments of one million iPads in the first month are impressive starting from zero, but even our total media tablet forecast falls far short of what anyone would call mass market adoption,” says Orr.
While it was understood that Apple could put together a good consumer solution and take significant early market share, there are lots of opportunities for others; it’s a question of how they come to market: solo, as Apple has done, or in conjunction with network operator and distribution partners, he adds.