In a note to clients — as reported by “Barron’s” (http://macte.ch/TSVUG) — Needham & Co. analyst Charlie Wolf has raised his target price on shares of Apple from US$375 to $450, saying the “trajectory” of sales of the iPhone and iPad now appears to be higher than he originally expected.
Wolf now estimates 300 million smartphones were sold in total last year, up from a prior expectation of 250 million units. He also notes his estimation for iPhone sales last calendar year was only 40 million, which turned out to be below the actual 47.5 million Apple sold.
For 2011, he’s now modeling 75 million units. Wolf sees Apple with a 16% share of smartphones now, moving to perhaps 22% in the next five years, with the assumption Verizon Communications sells 16 million units this year and 16 million next year.
As a consequence of the iPhone and iPad estimates, Wolf raised his estimate for the material contribution to Apple revenue of the iPhone and iPad. He says the former may contribute $240 per share to the value of Apple this year, up from $191. The iPad may contribute $43 per share, up from $35 previously, says Wolf.