ABI Research (www.abiresearch.com) predicts 156 million tablets will ship in 2020, marking a 3% CAGR [compound annual return rate] for the device category between 2015 and 2020.
This is despite the fact that tablet forecasts were revised downward in response to continued pressure on shipments and revenues by Apple, Samsung and other leading vendors. According to the latest research, branded tablet revenues reached approximately $55 billion in 2015, down from $68 billion in 2014. While revenues are expected to remain flat in 2016, ABI Research projects last year’s retail ASPs [average selling prices] to drop below $400 for the first time.
“We expect the global installed base to decline primarily due to older devices in most developed market economies aging out faster after purchase than replacement devices being acquired and new products being shipped into emerging market economies,” says Jeff Orr, research director at ABI Research. “Major advanced market economies will represent about 65% of branded tablet shipments in 2015, down from more than 68% in the previous year.”
In previous reports, ABI Research accurately predicted that the global installed tablet base would decline for the first time in 2016.
“Fifty-seven percent of branded tablet shipments in 2015 had displays measuring between seven inches and 8.9 inches, with more than 23% of those shipments measuring in at 10 inches or above,” concludes Orr. “However, the introduction of 12-inch plus tablets in 2015 is not expected to shift the buying trend back to larger tablet displays. The prices of 7-inch and 8-inch tablets remain compelling as the market sweet spot for the foreseeable future.”