Research from IHS Markit concludes that after declining unit-shipment volumes in 2017, global TV shipments are set to grow 3.6% year-on-year in 2018, with additional 1.4% growth in 2019.
As noted by RapidTV News (https://tinyurl.com/ydhmqs98), the research group sees advanced TV technologies poised for growth, including organic light-emitting diode (OLED), 8K and quantum dot, as robust large-screen growth continues. Indeed, it predicts that of the 226 million TVs expected to ship in 2019, more than half will be Ultra HD (UHD) models, the majority of which are 4K. However, IHS Markit notes that 8K TVs from major global TV brands will launch toward the end of 2018, with the likely effect of kicking off a next wave of resolution transition.
IHS Markit forecasts that the 8K TV market will grow from less than 20,000 units in 2018 to more than 430,000 in 2019, eventually approaching two million units by 2020. It adds that most of this growth will be centred on 60-inch and larger screen sizes, with 65-inch TVs accounting for more than half of the volume. Yet the analyst also stressed that technologies like 8K, OLED and quantum dot still carry substantial premiums, and even 4K TVs still carry premiums of more than 35% at screen sizes where 1080p resolution is still an option, such as 40-inch to 49-inch TVs.
The survey also projected that OLED TV will grow more than 40% in 2019, rising to 3.6 million units. This growth is said to be in line with previous forecasts, because demand is essentially matching industry production capacity. IHS Markit believes that the size mix still favors 55-inch TVs, based on current prices, but it will likely transition to mostly 65-inch TVs by 2020, when new production capacity is optimized for larger screen sizes, and when substantial growth is expected in the OLED TV category.
Quantum dot LCD TV shipments are forecast to exceed 4 million units in 2019, based on more aggressive pricing and the introduction of transitional quantum-dot-equipped LCD TV models.