Worldwide smartphone shipments are forecast to grow 4.0% year-over- year in 2024 to 1.21 billion units with strong iPhone sales, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. 

The growth in 2024 adds momentum to the overall recovery IDC expects throughout the forecast as consumer demand slowly rebounds from the dismal past few years. The recovery will continue in 2025 with 2.3% growth expected, followed by low single-digit growth for the rest of the forecast period, resulting in a five-year compound annual growth rate of 2.3%, according to the research group.

“While the overall market will see a relatively strong recovery this year with 4% growth coming from almost all regions, it is important to note that the majority of the growth will be driven by Android, which is expected to grow significantly faster at 4.8% compared to 0.7% for iOS (Apple),” says Nabila Popal, research director with IDC’s Worldwide Tracker Team. “The rapid growth of Android is coming off a tough two years, while iOS’s softer growth is due to a strong 2023 and increasing competition in China that is denting its growth potential.”

However, Popal says if Apple makes a strong move around its AI strategy for iPhones, demonstrating clear use cases, it could accelerate the growth for Apple and revamp demand for iPhones, especially in China. 

“5G-powered smartphones continue to fuel the market as these devices will display nearly 16% growth in 2024 as adoption continues to expand across all regions and markets,” said Anthony Scarsella, research director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. “The 16% growth in 2024 will be followed by another year of double-digit growth in 2025 (+13.2%) as 5G market share will climb to 74.4%, up from 67.2% in 2024. With 5G saturation in most developed markets, the growth of 5G in emerging markets will play a central role in driving shipments throughout the forecast period. While the overall smartphone market will have a 2.3% compound annual growth rate from 2024-2028, 5G shipments will deliver an impressive 9.1% growth rate for the same time period.”

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